Politics
The Future of Iraq Amid Regional Politics
Politics
Cover issue
Mohammed Rajab
The Political Landscape: Between Sovereignty and Foreign Influence
Iraq’s political scene remains fragile, torn between internal power struggles and competing regional and international agendas. The ongoing rivalry between Iran and the United States continues to shape Iraqi politics, while Turkish military operations in the north and Gulf countries’ economic interests add further complexity. Internally, divisions among political parties, sects, and militias weaken national decision-making and slow down reforms.
Despite efforts to establish a more stable government, resistance from entrenched political elites and external pressures persists. While Iraq strives to assert national sovereignty, it remains vulnerable to becoming a proxy battleground for major powers. If this situation continues, the state risks further weakening, with militias and non-governmental actors continuing to influence security and governance.
Iraq’s political scene remains fragile, torn between internal power struggles and competing regional and international agendas. The ongoing rivalry between Iran and the United States continues to shape Iraqi politics, while Turkish military operations in the north and Gulf countries’ economic interests add further complexity. Internally, divisions among political parties, sects, and militias weaken national decision-making and slow down reforms.
Despite efforts to establish a more stable government, resistance from entrenched political elites and external pressures persists. While Iraq strives to assert national sovereignty, it remains vulnerable to becoming a proxy battleground for major powers. If this situation continues, the state risks further weakening, with militias and non-governmental actors continuing to influence security and governance.
One of the most pressing challenges Iraq faces today is the extent of Iranian influence within its political and security institutions. Iran-backed militias and political factions have significantly shaped Iraq’s policies, often at the expense of national interests. At this critical moment, reducing Iranian influence—or even cutting ties altogether—may be essential for Iraq to regain its sovereignty, strengthen its institutions, and pursue an independent foreign policy. Without such a shift, Iraq may remain entangled in regional conflicts that hinder its path toward stability.
Economic Prospects: Reform or Decline?
Iraq’s economy is heavily dependent on oil, making it susceptible to fluctuations in global markets. While oil revenues provide a lifeline, they also create a fragile economy plagued by corruption, mismanagement, and a lack of diversification. Although the government has repeatedly promised reforms, structural change has been slow.
In the near future, Iraq faces two possible paths: One involves necessary economic reforms such as reducing dependence on oil, improving infrastructure, and attracting foreign investments, leading to gradual recovery. The other sees ongoing financial instability fueling public discontent and unrest. If Iraq fails to implement effective policies, economic struggles may escalate protests and widen the gap between the ruling elite and the people.
Iraq’s economy is heavily dependent on oil, making it susceptible to fluctuations in global markets. While oil revenues provide a lifeline, they also create a fragile economy plagued by corruption, mismanagement, and a lack of diversification. Although the government has repeatedly promised reforms, structural change has been slow.
In the near future, Iraq faces two possible paths: One involves necessary economic reforms such as reducing dependence on oil, improving infrastructure, and attracting foreign investments, leading to gradual recovery. The other sees ongoing financial instability fueling public discontent and unrest. If Iraq fails to implement effective policies, economic struggles may escalate protests and widen the gap between the ruling elite and the people.
Social Dynamics: A Nation in Transition
Iraqi society has undergone significant changes over the past two decades. Years of conflict, displacement, and economic hardship have left deep scars, but they have also given rise to a new generation demanding change. Youth-led movements advocating for reforms, anti-corruption measures, and better living conditions have grown in voice and influence.
However, the presence of armed groups, sectarian divisions, and externally driven agendas continues to challenge national unity. The rise of digital activism and increasing public awareness could either strengthen collective national identity or deepen divisions, depending on how political leaders respond to societal demands along with regional and international pressures.
Iraqi society has undergone significant changes over the past two decades. Years of conflict, displacement, and economic hardship have left deep scars, but they have also given rise to a new generation demanding change. Youth-led movements advocating for reforms, anti-corruption measures, and better living conditions have grown in voice and influence.
However, the presence of armed groups, sectarian divisions, and externally driven agendas continues to challenge national unity. The rise of digital activism and increasing public awareness could either strengthen collective national identity or deepen divisions, depending on how political leaders respond to societal demands along with regional and international pressures.
The Role of Regional and Global Relations in Iraq’s Stability
Iraq’s instability is deeply tied to its geopolitical position and the interests of major regional and global powers. Its ability to achieve stability depends not only on domestic reforms but also on how it balances relations with neighboring countries and global actors. If Iraq can establish a neutral, independent foreign policy while maintaining productive ties with the United States and Great Britain, it may have a better chance at long-term stability.
However, the overwhelming influence of Iran remains a significant barrier to Iraq’s sovereignty. Cutting or at least significantly reducing its dependence on Tehran’s political, military, and economic support is crucial at this moment. Iran’s deep involvement in Iraq’s internal affairs has weakened national institutions, fueled sectarian divisions, and made Iraq a battlefield for regional conflicts. If Iraq’s leadership takes decisive steps to limit Iranian interference, it could pave the way for stronger governance and a more independent future.
Iraq’s instability is deeply tied to its geopolitical position and the interests of major regional and global powers. Its ability to achieve stability depends not only on domestic reforms but also on how it balances relations with neighboring countries and global actors. If Iraq can establish a neutral, independent foreign policy while maintaining productive ties with the United States and Great Britain, it may have a better chance at long-term stability.
However, the overwhelming influence of Iran remains a significant barrier to Iraq’s sovereignty. Cutting or at least significantly reducing its dependence on Tehran’s political, military, and economic support is crucial at this moment. Iran’s deep involvement in Iraq’s internal affairs has weakened national institutions, fueled sectarian divisions, and made Iraq a battlefield for regional conflicts. If Iraq’s leadership takes decisive steps to limit Iranian interference, it could pave the way for stronger governance and a more independent future.
Possible Scenarios for Iraq’s Near Future
Based on current trends, Iraq’s future could unfold in several ways:
• The Path to Stability and Reform – If political leadership prioritizes national interests over Iranian influence, implements economic reforms, and addresses corruption, Iraq could gradually move toward stability. Strengthening institutions and investing in infrastructure could help rebuild public trust.
- Instability and Internal Struggles .
If political conflicts, economic mismanagement, and Iranian interventions persist, Iraq may remain trapped in a cycle of protests, violence, and government failures, hindering long-term development.
- Increased Fragmentation and Regional Conflicts .
In the worst-case scenario, Iraq could experience further sectarian or regional divisions, with factions gaining more power than the central government. This could lead to unofficial territorial splits and prolonged instability.
Based on current trends, Iraq’s future could unfold in several ways:
• The Path to Stability and Reform – If political leadership prioritizes national interests over Iranian influence, implements economic reforms, and addresses corruption, Iraq could gradually move toward stability. Strengthening institutions and investing in infrastructure could help rebuild public trust.
- Instability and Internal Struggles .
If political conflicts, economic mismanagement, and Iranian interventions persist, Iraq may remain trapped in a cycle of protests, violence, and government failures, hindering long-term development.
- Increased Fragmentation and Regional Conflicts .
In the worst-case scenario, Iraq could experience further sectarian or regional divisions, with factions gaining more power than the central government. This could lead to unofficial territorial splits and prolonged instability.
Conclusion
Iraq’s future depends on how its leaders handle both internal and external pressures. Its stability is also closely linked to its relationships with regional and global powers, making diplomatic strategy as crucial as domestic reforms.
At this critical moment, reducing or severing ties with Iran is a necessary step toward restoring Iraq’s sovereignty and preventing further foreign interference. Despite the challenges, there is still room for change if political reforms are implemented, economic policies are adjusted, and social unity is strengthened.
The coming months will determine Iraq’s future—whether it insists on the path of corruption and submission to Iran or emerges as a stronger and more independent country.
Iraq’s future depends on how its leaders handle both internal and external pressures. Its stability is also closely linked to its relationships with regional and global powers, making diplomatic strategy as crucial as domestic reforms.
At this critical moment, reducing or severing ties with Iran is a necessary step toward restoring Iraq’s sovereignty and preventing further foreign interference. Despite the challenges, there is still room for change if political reforms are implemented, economic policies are adjusted, and social unity is strengthened.
The coming months will determine Iraq’s future—whether it insists on the path of corruption and submission to Iran or emerges as a stronger and more independent country.
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